That’s difficult to answer – too many variables in play – facebook likes, youtube hits, twitter follower count, google search trends…. the list is endless and vague… you might have a better chance at predicting whether Obama will win the elections of not.
And guess what, it is damn straight easy to check who will win the biggest election in 2012 – Obama or Romney. (the biggest government change though is happening northeast of India in Nov).
Per the latest intrade data – punters predict Obama to win with an 80% chance… as for the uninitiated, Intrade is like a stock exchange where political predictions can be traded on a scale of 10. Each trade has a yes and no chance. If the prediction comes true then the shares will give out $10. If the prediction is false then the share will yield a lower bank balance. Its more like sports betting without sports or stock market without stocks. Its legality is obviously questionable but they have found some way to circumvent it for now (read headquartered in a different country). Now coming back to the US 2012 elections trade – 20% chance that Romney will win – that’s it…. even 2016 Obama film didn’t help him.
disclaimer: i do not have money to trade on intrade, i do not have a citizenship to vote in US
PS: Gangnam style is awesome